If OKC visited MIA today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.3 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

0.4

119.2

Offensive Rating

112.4

106.6

Defensive Rating

112.0

100.9

Pace

97.1

OKC (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

OKC wins

2026-01-17 OKC 120 @ MIA 122 MIA W

2026-01-11 OKC 112 @ MIA 124 MIA W

2025-02-12 OKC 101 @ MIA 115 MIA W

2024-12-20 OKC 104 @ MIA 97 OKC W

2024-03-08 OKC 100 @ MIA 107 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score