2026-27 Championship Futures
Preseason title odds for the 2026-27 season, computed from season-regressed ELO ratings (each team's end-of-season ELO pulled 25% toward the league mean — the same new-season prior our game model uses).
Reigning champions: New York Knicks · As of 2026-07-18 · How we compute these →
All 30 Teams
Our Model — softmax of each team's ELO advantage; sums to 100%.
| # | Team | Our Model |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
New York Knicks
|
22.8%
|
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
|
15.7%
|
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
13.2%
|
| 4 |
Charlotte Hornets
|
5.3%
|
| 5 |
Detroit Pistons
|
5.2%
|
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
|
4.7%
|
| 7 |
Denver Nuggets
|
4.0%
|
| 8 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
3.3%
|
| 9 |
Houston Rockets
|
2.9%
|
| 10 |
Los Angeles Lakers
|
2.9%
|
| 11 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
2.5%
|
| 12 |
Toronto Raptors
|
2.1%
|
| 13 |
Orlando Magic
|
2.1%
|
| 14 |
Los Angeles Clippers
|
1.8%
|
| 15 |
Atlanta Hawks
|
1.8%
|
| 16 |
Philadelphia 76ers
|
1.8%
|
| 17 |
Phoenix Suns
|
1.8%
|
| 18 |
Miami Heat
|
1.7%
|
| 19 |
Portland Trail Blazers
|
1.4%
|
| 20 |
Golden State Warriors
|
0.61%
|
| 21 |
New Orleans Pelicans
|
0.47%
|
| 22 |
Dallas Mavericks
|
0.3%
|
| 23 |
Milwaukee Bucks
|
0.28%
|
| 24 |
Chicago Bulls
|
0.27%
|
| 25 |
Indiana Pacers
|
0.26%
|
| 26 |
Sacramento Kings
|
0.24%
|
| 27 |
Utah Jazz
|
0.15%
|
| 28 |
Memphis Grizzlies
|
0.15%
|
| 29 |
Brooklyn Nets
|
0.12%
|
| 30 |
Washington Wizards
|
<0.1%
|
Methodology
Our Model softmaxes each team's ELO advantage against the league mean. During the playoffs, eliminated teams are zeroed out and the remaining mass is renormalised across teams still in contention. In the off-season all 30 teams are alive by definition, and each ELO is first regressed 25% toward the league mean — the standard new-season prior — so these are true preseason futures, not a replay of last year's bracket.
ELO captures season-long strength: point differential, home court, opponent quality. It does not see injuries, recent form, or bracket-stage variance — a best-of-7 between two strong teams carries more uncertainty than the ELO gap alone suggests. As a "who's actually good" signal it's accurate: the ELO leader at end-of-regular-season has been the NBA champion in 5 of the last 5 seasons. As a complete title forecast it's incomplete.
Not betting advice. See Responsible Gambling if you or someone you know has a problem.
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