NBA Championship Odds
Probability each team wins the next NBA championship, computed from current ELO ratings.
As of 2026-10-16 · How we compute these →
All 30 Teams
Our Model — softmax of each team's ELO advantage; sums to 100%.
| # | Team | Our Model | Kalshi Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
New York Knicks
|
31.6%
|
— |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
|
19.3%
|
— |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
15.3%
|
— |
| 4 |
Charlotte Hornets
|
4.5%
|
— |
| 5 |
Detroit Pistons
|
4.5%
|
— |
| 6 |
Boston Celtics
|
3.8%
|
— |
| 7 |
Denver Nuggets
|
3.1%
|
— |
| 8 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
2.4%
|
— |
| 9 |
Houston Rockets
|
2.1%
|
— |
| 10 |
Los Angeles Lakers
|
2.0%
|
— |
| 11 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
1.6%
|
— |
| 12 |
Toronto Raptors
|
1.4%
|
— |
| 13 |
Orlando Magic
|
1.3%
|
— |
| 14 |
Los Angeles Clippers
|
1.1%
|
— |
| 15 |
Atlanta Hawks
|
1.1%
|
— |
| 16 |
Philadelphia 76ers
|
1.1%
|
— |
| 17 |
Phoenix Suns
|
1.1%
|
— |
| 18 |
Miami Heat
|
0.96%
|
— |
| 19 |
Portland Trail Blazers
|
0.79%
|
— |
| 20 |
Golden State Warriors
|
0.25%
|
— |
| 21 |
New Orleans Pelicans
|
0.18%
|
— |
| 22 |
Dallas Mavericks
|
0.1%
|
— |
| 23 |
Chicago Bulls
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 24 |
Milwaukee Bucks
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 25 |
Indiana Pacers
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 26 |
Sacramento Kings
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 27 |
Utah Jazz
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 28 |
Memphis Grizzlies
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 29 |
Brooklyn Nets
|
<0.1%
|
— |
| 30 |
Washington Wizards
|
<0.1%
|
— |
Methodology
Our Model softmaxes each team's ELO advantage against the league mean. During the playoffs, eliminated teams are zeroed out and the remaining mass is renormalised across teams still in contention.
ELO captures season-long strength: point differential, home court, opponent quality. It does not see injuries, recent form, or bracket-stage variance — a best-of-7 between two strong teams carries more uncertainty than the ELO gap alone suggests. As a "who's actually good" signal it's accurate: the ELO leader at end-of-regular-season has been the NBA champion in 5 of the last 5 seasons. As a complete title forecast it's incomplete.
Not betting advice. See Responsible Gambling if you or someone you know has a problem.
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