2026 WNBA Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today: seeds 1–8 from live standings, with our ELO model's probability that the higher seed survives the best-of-three first round.
As of 2026-09-03 · Playoffs tip off September 27 · Full title odds →
Projected first round
1
Minnesota Lynx
19-6
Minnesota Lynx
8
New York Liberty
13-11
New York Liberty
Series: MIN 80%
·
NY 20%
Projected first round
2
Golden State Valkyries
18-7
Golden State Valkyries
7
Washington Mystics
12-10
Washington Mystics
Series: GS 85%
·
WSH 15%
Projected first round
3
Las Vegas Aces
17-7
Las Vegas Aces
6
Atlanta Dream
14-10
Atlanta Dream
Series: LV 61%
·
ATL 39%
Projected first round
4
Dallas Wings
16-8
Dallas Wings
5
Indiana Fever
14-10
Indiana Fever
Series: DAL 49%
·
IND 51%
Seeds are projections from current win percentage (point differential as tiebreaker) — the league's official tiebreakers can differ. Series odds use the same ELO ratings as our championship board, with home-court weighting for the higher seed.
Our ELO model's 2026 WNBA record, graded on pre-game ratings:
114-67
(63.0% straight-up)
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