2026 WNBA Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today: seeds 1–8 from live standings, with our ELO model's probability that the higher seed survives the best-of-three first round.
As of 2026-08-17 · Playoffs tip off September 27 · Full title odds →
Projected first round
1
Minnesota Lynx
20-6
Minnesota Lynx
8
Atlanta Dream
14-11
Atlanta Dream
Series: MIN 78%
·
ATL 22%
Projected first round
2
Golden State Valkyries
18-7
Golden State Valkyries
7
New York Liberty
14-11
New York Liberty
Series: GS 72%
·
NY 28%
Projected first round
3
Las Vegas Aces
17-8
Las Vegas Aces
6
Washington Mystics
13-10
Washington Mystics
Series: LV 77%
·
WSH 23%
Projected first round
4
Dallas Wings
16-9
Dallas Wings
5
Indiana Fever
16-10
Indiana Fever
Series: DAL 45%
·
IND 55%
Seeds are projections from current win percentage (point differential as tiebreaker) — the league's official tiebreakers can differ. Series odds use the same ELO ratings as our championship board, with home-court weighting for the higher seed.
Our ELO model's 2026 WNBA record, graded on pre-game ratings:
117-72
(61.9% straight-up)
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