If WAS visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +24.9 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

12.7

105.8

Offensive Rating

119.2

118.0

Defensive Rating

106.6

101.8

Pace

100.9

WAS (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

WAS wins

2026-03-21 WAS 132 @ OKC 111 WAS W

2025-10-30 WAS 108 @ OKC 127 OKC W

2025-01-12 WAS 136 @ OKC 95 WAS W

2024-12-23 WAS 105 @ OKC 123 OKC W

2024-02-23 WAS 106 @ OKC 147 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score