If WAS visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.6 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

0.4

105.8

Offensive Rating

112.4

118.0

Defensive Rating

112.0

101.8

Pace

97.1

WAS (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

WAS wins

2026-04-10 WAS 140 @ MIA 117 WAS W

2026-04-04 WAS 136 @ MIA 152 MIA W

2026-03-10 WAS 129 @ MIA 150 MIA W

2026-02-08 WAS 132 @ MIA 101 WAS W

2025-04-13 WAS 119 @ MIA 118 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score