If UTA visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +21.9 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

12.7

110.2

Offensive Rating

119.2

119.4

Defensive Rating

106.6

100.8

Pace

100.9

UTA (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

UTA wins

2026-04-05 UTA 111 @ OKC 146 OKC W

2026-01-07 UTA 125 @ OKC 129 OKC W

2025-12-07 UTA 131 @ OKC 101 UTA W

2025-11-21 UTA 144 @ OKC 112 UTA W

2025-04-11 UTA 145 @ OKC 111 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score