If TOR visited MIA today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.5 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

0.4

109.6

Offensive Rating

112.4

113.6

Defensive Rating

112.0

100.6

Pace

97.1

TOR (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

TOR wins

2026-04-09 TOR 114 @ MIA 128 MIA W

2026-04-07 TOR 95 @ MIA 121 MIA W

2025-12-23 TOR 112 @ MIA 91 TOR W

2025-12-15 TOR 106 @ MIA 96 TOR W

2025-02-21 TOR 120 @ MIA 111 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score