If POR visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +15.4 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

12.7

111.0

Offensive Rating

119.2

113.7

Defensive Rating

106.6

99.5

Pace

100.9

POR (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

POR wins

2025-12-31 POR 95 @ OKC 124 OKC W

2025-11-30 POR 123 @ OKC 115 POR W

2025-11-23 POR 95 @ OKC 122 OKC W

2025-11-05 POR 119 @ OKC 121 OKC W

2025-03-07 POR 89 @ OKC 107 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score