If PHX visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

0.4

114.7

Offensive Rating

112.4

117.7

Defensive Rating

112.0

98.3

Pace

97.1

PHX (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

PHX wins

2026-01-25 PHX 111 @ MIA 102 PHX W

2026-01-13 PHX 121 @ MIA 127 MIA W

2024-12-07 PHX 111 @ MIA 121 MIA W

2024-11-06 PHX 112 @ MIA 115 MIA W

2024-01-29 PHX 118 @ MIA 105 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score