If PHI visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +19.0 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

12.7

111.0

Offensive Rating

119.2

117.3

Defensive Rating

106.6

98.1

Pace

100.9

PHI (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

PHI wins

2026-03-23 PHI 123 @ OKC 103 PHI W

2025-12-28 PHI 104 @ OKC 129 OKC W

2025-03-19 PHI 100 @ OKC 133 OKC W

2025-01-14 PHI 118 @ OKC 102 PHI W

2024-04-02 PHI 105 @ OKC 109 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score