If PHI visited MIA today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.7 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

0.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

112.4

117.3

Defensive Rating

112.0

98.1

Pace

97.1

PHI (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

PHI wins

2026-03-30 PHI 109 @ MIA 119 MIA W

2026-02-26 PHI 117 @ MIA 124 MIA W

2025-11-23 PHI 127 @ MIA 117 PHI W

2025-04-07 PHI 105 @ MIA 117 MIA W

2025-03-29 PHI 118 @ MIA 95 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score