If ORL visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.9 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

12.7

108.9

Offensive Rating

119.2

109.1

Defensive Rating

106.6

96.5

Pace

100.9

ORL (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

ORL wins

2026-03-17 ORL 113 @ OKC 108 ORL W

2026-02-03 ORL 92 @ OKC 128 OKC W

2024-12-19 ORL 105 @ OKC 99 ORL W

2024-11-04 ORL 86 @ OKC 102 OKC W

2024-02-13 ORL 127 @ OKC 113 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score