If ORL visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.6 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

0.4

108.9

Offensive Rating

112.4

109.1

Defensive Rating

112.0

96.5

Pace

97.1

ORL (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

ORL wins

2026-03-14 ORL 121 @ MIA 117 ORL W

2026-01-28 ORL 133 @ MIA 124 ORL W

2025-12-09 ORL 108 @ MIA 117 MIA W

2025-12-05 ORL 105 @ MIA 106 MIA W

2025-10-22 ORL 121 @ MIA 125 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score