If OKC visited UTA today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -21.9 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-9.2

119.2

Offensive Rating

110.2

106.6

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.9

Pace

100.8

OKC (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

OKC wins

2026-04-05 OKC 111 @ UTA 146 UTA W

2026-01-07 OKC 125 @ UTA 129 UTA W

2025-12-07 OKC 131 @ UTA 101 OKC W

2025-11-21 OKC 144 @ UTA 112 OKC W

2025-04-11 OKC 145 @ UTA 111 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score