NBAANALYTICS
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These teams play today!

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs โ€” see Today's Picks for live odds & edge analysis.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
AI Prediction & Odds Analysis

OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
75-22 L2
+12.7 NRT
at
@
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
74-26 W2
-2.8 NRT

Tonight's AI Pick

AI Pick
SAS SAS
Model Spread
SAS -0.4
Win Prob.
51.5%
Our XGBoost model gives San Antonio Spurs a 51.5% win probability tonight based on a net rating advantage of -15.5 points for SAS at home.

Prediction based on current season ratings & ELO. Updated daily. Not financial advice โ€” bet responsibly.

Team Stats Comparison

2025โ€“26 Season
12.7
Net Rating
-2.8
119.2
Offensive Rating
113.5
106.6
Defensive Rating
116.3
100.9
Pace
100.1
OKC (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

OKC OKC 75-22 L2 Avg margin last 5: -5.6
L SAS
L SAS
W SAS
L SAS
W SAS
SAS SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6
W OKC
W OKC
L OKC
W OKC
L OKC

Head-to-Head History

6
SAS wins
4
OKC wins
2026-05-30 OKC 111 @ SAS 103 OKC W
2026-05-28 OKC 91 @ SAS 118 SAS W
2026-05-26 OKC 114 @ SAS 127 SAS W
2026-05-24 OKC 82 @ SAS 103 SAS W
2026-05-22 OKC 123 @ SAS 108 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made โ€” not specific to this matchup.

68.1%
All Games
1358 tracked
75.7%
High Conf.
>65% picks
76.0%
Last 50
recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier โ€” a 51.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.7% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score

Explore More

OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
All predictions & analysis →
 SAS
San Antonio Spurs
All predictions & analysis →
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