If OKC visited POR today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -15.4 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-2.7

119.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

106.6

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.9

Pace

99.5

OKC (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

OKC wins

2025-12-31 OKC 95 @ POR 124 POR W

2025-11-30 OKC 123 @ POR 115 OKC W

2025-11-23 OKC 95 @ POR 122 POR W

2025-11-05 OKC 119 @ POR 121 POR W

2025-03-07 OKC 89 @ POR 107 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score