If OKC visited PHX today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -15.7 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-3.0

119.2

Offensive Rating

114.7

106.6

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.9

Pace

98.3

OKC (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

OKC wins

2026-04-27 OKC 131 @ PHX 122 OKC W

2026-04-25 OKC 121 @ PHX 109 OKC W

2026-04-22 OKC 107 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2026-04-19 OKC 84 @ PHX 119 PHX W

2026-04-12 OKC 135 @ PHX 103 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score