If OKC visited ORL today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.9 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-0.2

119.2

Offensive Rating

108.9

106.6

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.9

Pace

96.5

OKC (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

OKC wins

2026-03-17 OKC 113 @ ORL 108 OKC W

2026-02-03 OKC 92 @ ORL 128 ORL W

2024-12-19 OKC 105 @ ORL 99 OKC W

2024-11-04 OKC 86 @ ORL 102 ORL W

2024-02-13 OKC 127 @ ORL 113 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score