If OKC visited NOP today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -22.1 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-9.4

119.2

Offensive Rating

109.7

106.6

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.9

Pace

99.8

OKC (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

OKC wins

2026-01-27 OKC 95 @ NOP 104 NOP W

2025-11-17 OKC 126 @ NOP 109 OKC W

2025-11-02 OKC 106 @ NOP 137 NOP W

2025-04-13 OKC 115 @ NOP 100 OKC W

2025-02-10 OKC 101 @ NOP 137 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score