If OKC visited MIN today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.7 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

5.0

119.2

Offensive Rating

115.7

106.6

Defensive Rating

110.8

100.9

Pace

98.0

OKC (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

OKC wins

2026-03-15 OKC 103 @ MIN 116 MIN W

2026-01-29 OKC 111 @ MIN 123 MIN W

2025-12-19 OKC 107 @ MIN 112 MIN W

2025-11-26 OKC 105 @ MIN 113 MIN W

2025-05-28 OKC 94 @ MIN 124 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score