If OKC visited MIL today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.3 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

2.4

119.2

Offensive Rating

115.1

106.6

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.9

Pace

99.9

OKC (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

OKC wins

2026-02-12 OKC 110 @ MIL 93 OKC W

2026-01-21 OKC 122 @ MIL 102 OKC W

2025-03-16 OKC 121 @ MIL 105 OKC W

2025-02-03 OKC 96 @ MIL 125 MIL W

2024-04-12 OKC 107 @ MIL 125 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score