If OKC visited IND today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.6 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

2.1

119.2

Offensive Rating

115.4

106.6

Defensive Rating

113.3

100.9

Pace

100.8

OKC (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

OKC wins

2026-01-23 OKC 117 @ IND 114 OKC W

2025-10-23 OKC 141 @ IND 135 OKC W

2025-06-22 OKC 91 @ IND 103 IND W

2025-06-19 OKC 91 @ IND 108 IND W

2025-06-16 OKC 109 @ IND 120 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score