If OKC visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.1 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

4.6

119.2

Offensive Rating

114.9

106.6

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.9

Pace

99.0

OKC (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

OKC wins

2026-02-07 OKC 112 @ HOU 106 OKC W

2026-01-15 OKC 111 @ HOU 91 OKC W

2025-10-21 OKC 124 @ HOU 125 HOU W

2025-04-04 OKC 111 @ HOU 125 HOU W

2025-03-03 OKC 128 @ HOU 137 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score