If OKC visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.9 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

3.8

119.2

Offensive Rating

118.9

106.6

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.9

Pace

100.7

OKC (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

OKC wins

2026-04-10 OKC 107 @ DEN 127 DEN W

2026-03-09 OKC 126 @ DEN 129 DEN W

2026-02-27 OKC 121 @ DEN 127 DEN W

2026-02-01 OKC 121 @ DEN 111 OKC W

2025-05-18 OKC 93 @ DEN 125 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score