If OKC visited ATL today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.8 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-1.1

119.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

106.6

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.9

Pace

103.4

OKC (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

OKC wins

2025-12-29 OKC 129 @ ATL 140 ATL W

2025-10-25 OKC 117 @ ATL 100 OKC W

2025-02-28 OKC 135 @ ATL 119 OKC W

2024-10-27 OKC 104 @ ATL 128 ATL W

2024-01-03 OKC 138 @ ATL 141 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score