If NOP visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +22.1 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

12.7

109.7

Offensive Rating

119.2

119.1

Defensive Rating

106.6

99.8

Pace

100.9

NOP (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

NOP wins

2026-01-27 NOP 95 @ OKC 104 OKC W

2025-11-17 NOP 126 @ OKC 109 NOP W

2025-11-02 NOP 106 @ OKC 137 OKC W

2025-04-13 NOP 115 @ OKC 100 NOP W

2025-02-10 NOP 101 @ OKC 137 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score