If MIL visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.0 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

0.4

115.1

Offensive Rating

112.4

112.7

Defensive Rating

112.0

99.9

Pace

97.1

MIL (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

MIL wins

2026-03-12 MIL 105 @ MIA 112 MIA W

2026-02-24 MIL 117 @ MIA 128 MIA W

2025-11-26 MIL 103 @ MIA 106 MIA W

2025-04-05 MIL 121 @ MIA 115 MIL W

2025-02-23 MIL 113 @ MIA 120 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score