If MIA visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.5 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-4.1

112.4

Offensive Rating

109.6

112.0

Defensive Rating

113.6

97.1

Pace

100.6

MIA (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

MIA wins

2026-04-09 MIA 114 @ TOR 128 TOR W

2026-04-07 MIA 95 @ TOR 121 TOR W

2025-12-23 MIA 112 @ TOR 91 MIA W

2025-12-15 MIA 106 @ TOR 96 MIA W

2025-02-21 MIA 120 @ TOR 111 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score