If MIA visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.4 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-3.0

112.4

Offensive Rating

114.7

112.0

Defensive Rating

117.7

97.1

Pace

98.3

MIA (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

MIA wins

2026-01-25 MIA 111 @ PHX 102 MIA W

2026-01-13 MIA 121 @ PHX 127 PHX W

2024-12-07 MIA 111 @ PHX 121 PHX W

2024-11-06 MIA 112 @ PHX 115 PHX W

2024-01-29 MIA 118 @ PHX 105 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score