If MIA visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.7 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-6.3

112.4

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.0

Defensive Rating

117.3

97.1

Pace

98.1

MIA (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

MIA wins

2026-03-30 MIA 109 @ PHI 119 PHI W

2026-02-26 MIA 117 @ PHI 124 PHI W

2025-11-23 MIA 127 @ PHI 117 MIA W

2025-04-07 MIA 105 @ PHI 117 PHI W

2025-03-29 MIA 118 @ PHI 95 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score