If MIA visited NOP today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.8 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-9.4

112.4

Offensive Rating

109.7

112.0

Defensive Rating

119.1

97.1

Pace

99.8

MIA (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

MIA wins

2026-02-11 MIA 123 @ NOP 111 MIA W

2026-01-04 MIA 106 @ NOP 125 NOP W

2025-04-11 MIA 153 @ NOP 104 MIA W

2025-01-01 MIA 108 @ NOP 119 NOP W

2024-03-22 MIA 111 @ NOP 88 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score