If MIA visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.6 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

5.0

112.4

Offensive Rating

115.7

112.0

Defensive Rating

110.8

97.1

Pace

98.0

MIA (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

MIA wins

2026-01-06 MIA 94 @ MIN 122 MIN W

2026-01-03 MIA 125 @ MIN 115 MIA W

2025-03-07 MIA 106 @ MIN 104 MIA W

2024-11-10 MIA 95 @ MIN 94 MIA W

2023-12-18 MIA 112 @ MIN 108 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score