If MIA visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.2 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

4.6

112.4

Offensive Rating

114.9

112.0

Defensive Rating

110.3

97.1

Pace

99.0

MIA (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

MIA wins

2026-03-21 MIA 122 @ HOU 123 HOU W

2026-02-28 MIA 105 @ HOU 115 HOU W

2025-03-21 MIA 102 @ HOU 98 MIA W

2024-12-29 MIA 104 @ HOU 100 MIA W

2024-04-05 MIA 119 @ HOU 104 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score