If MIA visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

3.8

112.4

Offensive Rating

118.9

112.0

Defensive Rating

115.1

97.1

Pace

100.7

MIA (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

MIA wins

2025-12-29 MIA 123 @ DEN 147 DEN W

2025-11-05 MIA 112 @ DEN 122 DEN W

2025-01-17 MIA 133 @ DEN 113 MIA W

2024-11-08 MIA 122 @ DEN 135 DEN W

2024-03-13 MIA 100 @ DEN 88 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score