If MIA visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.5 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.4

Net Rating

-1.1

112.4

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

97.1

Pace

103.4

MIA (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

MIA wins

2026-04-12 MIA 117 @ ATL 143 ATL W

2026-02-20 MIA 128 @ ATL 97 MIA W

2026-02-03 MIA 127 @ ATL 115 MIA W

2025-12-26 MIA 126 @ ATL 111 MIA W

2025-03-27 MIA 112 @ ATL 122 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score