If MEM visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.3 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

0.4

117.2

Offensive Rating

112.4

112.6

Defensive Rating

112.0

103.7

Pace

97.1

MEM (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

MEM wins

2026-02-21 MEM 120 @ MIA 136 MIA W

2025-10-24 MEM 146 @ MIA 114 MEM W

2025-04-03 MEM 110 @ MIA 108 MEM W

2025-03-15 MEM 91 @ MIA 125 MIA W

2024-01-24 MEM 105 @ MIA 96 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score