If GSW visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.5 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

12.7

114.2

Offensive Rating

119.2

111.0

Defensive Rating

106.6

99.4

Pace

100.9

GSW (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

GSW wins

2026-03-07 GSW 97 @ OKC 104 OKC W

2026-01-02 GSW 131 @ OKC 94 GSW W

2025-12-02 GSW 124 @ OKC 112 GSW W

2025-11-11 GSW 102 @ OKC 126 OKC W

2025-01-29 GSW 109 @ OKC 116 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score