If DEN visited MIA today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.4 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

0.4

118.9

Offensive Rating

112.4

115.1

Defensive Rating

112.0

100.7

Pace

97.1

DEN (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

DEN wins

2025-12-29 DEN 123 @ MIA 147 MIA W

2025-11-05 DEN 112 @ MIA 122 MIA W

2025-01-17 DEN 133 @ MIA 113 DEN W

2024-11-08 DEN 122 @ MIA 135 MIA W

2024-03-13 DEN 100 @ MIA 88 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score