If DAL visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.0 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

12.7

113.7

Offensive Rating

119.2

115.0

Defensive Rating

106.6

100.2

Pace

100.9

DAL (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

OKC 75-22 L2 Avg margin last 5: -5.6

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

W SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

DAL wins

2026-03-01 DAL 100 @ OKC 87 DAL W

2025-12-05 DAL 111 @ OKC 132 OKC W

2025-10-27 DAL 101 @ OKC 94 DAL W

2025-01-23 DAL 121 @ OKC 115 DAL W

2025-01-17 DAL 98 @ OKC 106 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7145 tracked

75.0%

High Conf.

>65% picks

82.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.0% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score