If DAL visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.7 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

0.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

112.4

115.0

Defensive Rating

112.0

100.2

Pace

97.1

DAL (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

DAL wins

2025-12-03 DAL 108 @ MIA 118 MIA W

2025-11-24 DAL 102 @ MIA 106 MIA W

2025-02-13 DAL 113 @ MIA 118 MIA W

2024-11-24 DAL 118 @ MIA 123 MIA W

2024-04-10 DAL 111 @ MIA 92 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score