If CHI visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 85.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.3 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

12.7

113.2

Offensive Rating

119.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

106.6

103.6

Pace

100.9

CHI (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

CHI wins

2026-03-27 CHI 113 @ OKC 131 OKC W

2026-03-03 CHI 116 @ OKC 108 CHI W

2025-03-31 CHI 117 @ OKC 145 OKC W

2024-10-26 CHI 114 @ OKC 95 CHI W

2023-11-22 CHI 102 @ OKC 116 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 85.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score