If CHI visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.0 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

0.4

113.2

Offensive Rating

112.4

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.0

103.6

Pace

97.1

CHI (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

CHI wins

2026-02-01 CHI 91 @ MIA 134 MIA W

2026-01-31 CHI 125 @ MIA 118 CHI W

2026-01-29 CHI 116 @ MIA 113 CHI W

2025-11-21 CHI 143 @ MIA 107 CHI W

2025-04-09 CHI 111 @ MIA 119 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score