If BKN visited MIA today, our model would lean Miami Heat with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.7 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-7.3

Net Rating

0.4

108.1

Offensive Rating

112.4

115.4

Defensive Rating

112.0

96.7

Pace

97.1

BKN (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

BKN wins

2026-03-05 BKN 110 @ MIA 126 MIA W

2026-03-03 BKN 98 @ MIA 124 MIA W

2025-12-18 BKN 106 @ MIA 95 BKN W

2025-02-07 BKN 86 @ MIA 102 MIA W

2025-01-25 BKN 106 @ MIA 97 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score