If ATL visited MIA today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.5 points for MIA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

0.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

112.4

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.0

103.4

Pace

97.1

ATL (Away) MIA (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

MIA 43-39 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.0

W ATL

W WAS

L TOR

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

MIA wins

ATL wins

2026-04-12 ATL 117 @ MIA 143 MIA W

2026-02-20 ATL 128 @ MIA 97 ATL W

2026-02-03 ATL 127 @ MIA 115 ATL W

2025-12-26 ATL 126 @ MIA 111 ATL W

2025-03-27 ATL 112 @ MIA 122 MIA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score