If WAS visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.1 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-4.1

105.8

Offensive Rating

109.6

118.0

Defensive Rating

113.6

101.8

Pace

100.6

WAS (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

WAS wins

2026-02-28 WAS 134 @ TOR 125 WAS W

2025-12-26 WAS 117 @ TOR 138 TOR W

2025-11-21 WAS 110 @ TOR 140 TOR W

2025-03-24 WAS 112 @ TOR 104 WAS W

2025-03-10 WAS 104 @ TOR 119 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score