If WAS visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.4 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-2.8

105.8

Offensive Rating

113.5

118.0

Defensive Rating

116.3

101.8

Pace

100.1

WAS (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

WAS wins

2025-12-21 WAS 124 @ SAS 113 WAS W

2025-12-18 WAS 94 @ SAS 119 SAS W

2025-02-10 WAS 131 @ SAS 121 WAS W

2024-11-13 WAS 130 @ SAS 139 SAS W

2024-01-29 WAS 118 @ SAS 113 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score