If WAS visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.2 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-3.0

105.8

Offensive Rating

114.7

118.0

Defensive Rating

117.7

101.8

Pace

98.3

WAS (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

WAS wins

2026-01-11 WAS 93 @ PHX 112 PHX W

2025-12-29 WAS 115 @ PHX 101 WAS W

2025-01-25 WAS 109 @ PHX 119 PHX W

2025-01-16 WAS 130 @ PHX 123 WAS W

2024-02-04 WAS 140 @ PHX 112 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score