If WAS visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.8 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-9.4

105.8

Offensive Rating

109.7

118.0

Defensive Rating

119.1

101.8

Pace

99.8

WAS (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

WAS wins

2026-03-08 WAS 118 @ NOP 138 NOP W

2026-01-09 WAS 128 @ NOP 107 WAS W

2025-01-05 WAS 110 @ NOP 98 WAS W

2025-01-03 WAS 120 @ NOP 132 NOP W

2024-02-14 WAS 126 @ NOP 133 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score