If WAS visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +17.2 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

5.0

105.8

Offensive Rating

115.7

118.0

Defensive Rating

110.8

101.8

Pace

98.0

WAS (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

WAS wins

2026-01-04 WAS 141 @ MIN 115 WAS W

2025-11-19 WAS 109 @ MIN 120 MIN W

2025-02-01 WAS 105 @ MIN 103 WAS W

2025-01-13 WAS 120 @ MIN 106 WAS W

2024-04-09 WAS 121 @ MIN 130 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score