If WAS visited MIL today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.6 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

2.4

105.8

Offensive Rating

115.1

118.0

Defensive Rating

112.7

101.8

Pace

99.9

WAS (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

WAS wins

2026-01-29 WAS 99 @ MIL 109 MIL W

2025-12-31 WAS 114 @ MIL 113 WAS W

2025-12-01 WAS 126 @ MIL 129 MIL W

2025-10-22 WAS 120 @ MIL 133 MIL W

2025-02-21 WAS 104 @ MIL 101 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score